Sometimes in football what can make or break a season is a vital force that has no explanation. It’s something that can’t be conveniently attained, transferred or even quantified.
For lack of better terminology and for the purpose of assigning a variable to complete the equation that must equal to success, the game identifies it as the ‘feel-good factor’.
And both teams will risk it at Old Trafford during the Manchester derby.
Liverpool’s insurmountable lead at the Premier League’s summit means Manchester City are destined to lose their crown, probably well before the season’s end.
It’s a reality that must prick at Pep Guardiola’s pride and that of his expensively assembled side that has secured back-to-back league titles.
The Citizens were also hit hard by UEFA’s decision to impose on them a two-year ban from participating in European tournaments for violating FFP regulations, putting their presence in the Champions League for the next couple of seasons in Jeopardy.
However, City have shown strength of character to beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Bernabeu during the first leg of the round of 16 tie and keep this squad’s hopes of achieving European glory alive.
They followed that crucial result by picking up their first piece of silverware in a challenging season, defeating Aston Villa 2-0 in the Carabao Cup final before getting past Sheffield Wednesday to advance to the FA Cup quarter-finals.
Despite a dismal defence of their league title, their last three results have ensured that this season may yet be deemed a success, particularly if Guardiola can finally deliver the Champions League glory City are so desperate to taste.
The prospect of ending the season with three trophies must breed a sense of optimism within the camp. But City’s feel-good factor is also fragile and there’s nothing like a derby day defeat to Manchester United to push them right back onto the ropes.
As for the Red Devils, their fans must find themselves stuck in limbo. There’s an urge to rejoice in the recent progress made by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s young squad, but there also remains an anxious wait for the other shoe to drop.
Bruno Fernandes’ arrival has breathed new life into the team while the scrutinised recruitment of Odion Ighalo from China has also worked like a charm so far.
United are now unbeaten in nine games across all competitions, keeping an impressive seven clean sheets during that time and conceding just two goals while scoring 22.
It’s easily their best run of form since Solskjaer was handed the job on a permanent basis and includes away wins at Chelsea and City.
Despite enduring a stop-start season, recent results have put United in a promising position. They were beaten by City in the Carabao Cup semi-finals but find themselves in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup and Europa League where they face Norwich City and Linzer ASK respectively. Meanwhile, they sit fifth in the league, only three points off Chelsea in fourth.
Champions League qualification coupled with a trophy this season would render this season a success for a team that’s very much in transition. And with momentum on their side, they will feel confident of meeting those targets.
But again, it could all come to a screeching halt with defeat to City. Suddenly, media attention turns away from United’s progress and refocuses on the gulf in class to their cross-town rivals. Chelsea may extend their lead to six points and United could easily plummet to eighth place.
United’s position, so it appears, is as precarious as it is promising. And like City, this derby has the potential to rob them of their feel-good factor and alter the course of their season.
Fortunately, Solskjaer has a tried and tested template against top-six opposition that’s been successful. Deploying a three-man central defence, he urges his side to remain compact while retaining a potent attacking threat in the transition.
Indeed, United edge recent meetings with their neighbours, winning three of the last six clashes and drawing one.
The derby will feature the usual narrative of a historical city rivalry and the animosity that goes with it but the importance of the three points on offer pales in comparison to the momentum both sides stand to lose.
It’s not easily explained but when seasons are so finely poised, it’s that mysterious feel-good factor that can make all the difference and the Manchester side that emerges from this derby with it still intact will likely be the happier one come this campaign’s culmination.
