So, Lionel Messi wants to leave Barcelona and the whole world wants to know what will happen next.
Well, we will have to be patient. Because this sorry situation is very unlikely to be resolved quickly.
There are two scenarios which would allow for a speedy conclusion to the saga.
Firstly, the resignation of Barcelona president Josep Maria Bartomeu, who is the main source of Messi’s discontent. But Bartomeu is too stubborn and has too much at stake to leave quickly and quietly, and even if he did go Messi may well maintain his stance that a fresh start is needed.
Secondly, Barcelona accepting Messi’s request to leave on a free transfer, which would allow his suitors to make rapid offers and get the deal completed soon. But Barca – or more specifically Bartomeu – appear determined to avoid that outcome, desperate to ensure that if Messi leaves, the club is fully compensated.
The key question is whether Messi is entitled to leave the club on a free transfer, as he claims to be the case.
Barca, though, argue that the specific clause in his contract allowing that to happen expired in June, with no scope for it to be extended due to the rescheduled conclusion to the season.
Unless either side backs down, which looks very unlikely, the only way that dispute can be settled is in the courtroom. Is Messi entitled to leave for nothing? Or are the club entitled to hold him to his contract? Lawyers will decide. And that process will not be quick – especially with the inevitability of the losers of the initial case launching an appeal with the Court of Arbitration for Sport in Switzerland.
Until that matter is settled, nobody knows – not even Messi – where he will end up.
For buying clubs, there is obviously a massive difference between signing a player for nothing and having to negotiate a big transfer fee.
That fee won’t be as big as his €700 million buy-out clause, for sure, but it will surely be at least €100 million, and possibly a lot higher depending on how far Barca want to push the issue.
Inter Milan, Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City – Messi’s most likely destinations – would significantly adjust their salary offer and overall package depending on how much, if anything, they have to pay to Barcelona, so none of those crucial details can be decided until the likely court case, and its subsequent appeal, have been concluded.
The danger here, of course, is that the transfer window closes on 5th October, less than six weeks from now. It is not realistic to expect lawyers to rush through a complicated, high-profile and very valuable legal process in such a short space of time.
So there is a very real prospect that Messi will be left in limbo for the opening months of the season, caught in an ugly legal dispute with his current club and forced to wait until the January transfer window – at least – before he can join his next club.
This means the only upcoming sightings of Messi on a football field, rather than in a courtroom, could be Argentina’s opening World Cup qualifiers in October and November.
Is 2020, the gift that keeps on giving, finding yet another way of tormenting us? Get used to the idea: Lionel Messi may very well not play club football again until next year.
