For the uninitiated or the avid cyclist enthusiasts, the Tour de France has become easily predictable over the years.
It may be a gruelling three-week battle through the soaring hills of France, covering more than 2,000 miles of road, yet the winner inevitably comes from Team Ineos.
Since 2012, seven of the eight winners have been Team Ineos – formerly Team Sky – riders: Chris Froome (four), Bradley Wiggins, Geraint Thomas and Egan Bernal.
In 2014, when Ineos did not secure Tour honours, Froome withdrew during the fifth stage after suffering two crashes. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali went on to clinch victory.
It’s an impressive run of success, especially when considering that a Team Ineos rider has generally been next best to threaten the overall winner.
Froome was Wiggins’ main rival in 2012, and was also Thomas’ most dangerous competitor two years ago. Last July, Thomas placed second to Bernal.
But with Froome and Thomas surprisingly omitted from Ineos’s Tour team, it means Bernal will be Brailsford’s outright leader as they bid for an eighth title in nine years.
In a year with little racing amid the Covid-19 pandemic, it is difficult to know what level of sharpness different riders will be at.
Even with various restrictions across the world, all riders will be tackling their various training programmes in a bid to arrive at the prestigious race in peak shape.
Nothing beats competition, and being at the pinnacle of your powers for the Tour is the ultimate goal for any rider.
With just more than a week to go until the start of 107th edition of the race, Team Jumbo Visma have emerged as a threat to Ineos’s dominance.
Primoz Roglic, winner of 2019 Vuelta a Espana, showed his vast qualities in the mountains at the recent Tour de l’Ain, leaving Bernal in his wake.
Although Roglic crashed out during stage 4 of the Criterium du Dauphine on Sunday, he is expected to be fully fit for the opening stage of Tour de France in Nice on August 29.
The significant question, though, will be whether the 30-year-old has shown his hand too soon after his shining form in Tour warm-up races.
He undoubtedly has the mettle to be a multiple grand tour winner, but in thick of the Tour de France, needs to be at his impeccable best with little to no error along the way.
Nevertheless, his Jumbo Visma side, who won three of the five stages on offer at the Dauphine, possess serious strength in the form of Steven Kruijswijk, Wout van Aert, George Bennett, Tom Dumoulin and Roglic.
Having Dumoulin, the 2018 Giro d’Italia winner, as part of the Dutch side represents a significant boost to their lofty Tour ambitions.
The 2018 Tour de France runner-up had not raced for over 400 days prior to the Dauphine due to a troublesome knee injury.
However, he was the only major contender to go the full five days without injury or bad form. His experience and class will bolster Jumbo Visma’s chances.
It will not be a predictable race like previous years with Jumbo-Visma looking so polished. Brailsford, meanwhile, has pivotal decisions to make and will pray for a fit Bernal.
The Colombian is Ineos’s marquee chance of winning the Tour, his intelligence and resilience key to overcoming the incumbent Roglic and Dumoulin.
A back injury ruled Bernal out of the final two stages of the Dauphine. The team, though, didn’t seem too worried about his injury, insisting that his withdrawal was only a precaution.
Bernal aside, given how Froome and Thomas struggled for form in recent races, it means 2019 Giro d’Italia champion Richard Carapaz and Pavel Sivakov are the team’s alternative leader.
The Russian looked sharp in the mountains, but with it being his maiden Tour, the experience of Carapaz could be the safest option to help steer Bernal to victory.
Whether or not it turns out to be a titanic battle that goes into the final week, Ineos against Jumbo Visma is shaping up to be a contest that deserves a blistering finish.
Ineos may not be as strong or aggressive as previous years. But whether the short-fall in form is a masterstroke of tactical hiding from Brailsford, it is something we will only know when the Tour traverses into mountain stages over the coming weeks.
